Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new ...

The map was created before Election Day 2024 as a prediction of how women might vote.

Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...

And, while most pollsters had predicted a narrowing margin between Harris and Trump in the popular vote, almost all showed ...

"A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close," pollsters FiveThirtyEight wrote on their website.

Polls taken before Election Day did pretty well. Pollsters got close to the mark in races for president and senate, which is ...

The Iowa pollster, renowned for her accuracy, has promised to review the data after her pre-election poll was far out of line with the results.

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Essentially, he told me, FiveThirtyEight reflects one person’s approach to turning data into a probability. Markets are ...

The polls weren’t off that much in capturing a near-uniform swing in very close states. But they underestimated the Trump ...

It's officially Election Day 2024! Who's winning the latest U.S. presidential election? Current polls, odds, results in Ohio.